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Market Update October 2019

2018June-Market-Update

 

As the fourth quarter of 2019 began, volatility in financial markets has ticked up a little bit as worries seemed to intensify, then dissipate, only to have intensify again over a number of factors. Manufacturing has slowed, oil prices bounced around after the attack in Saudi Arabia, and impeachment talks have heated up. However, dovish central banks and expectations for rising earnings have stemmed the bleeding, and investors have poured back into markets, driving stock prices up when they dip too far.

The models I follow depict this market in flux. On one hand, I’m very worried about the consecutive decreases in railcar and trucking loads. Lower GDP revisions reflect a slowing economy. A strong Dollar has made earnings comparisons tough for US-based multinational companies. The flat yield curve is challenging for financial institutions, and initial jobless claims have been ticking higher, albeit from very low levels.

There are also a number of factors that should support the stock market. Low-interest rates generally drive investors away from bonds and toward stocks. The Federal Reserve has indicated that they will continue to be supportive of conditions that favor stocks. President Trump has, to this point, de-escalated trade tensions after stock market pullbacks. And while manufacturing has slowed down, it is not as big of a component of our economy as it used to be. So, as long as the rest of the economy doesn’t fade, we could still see some growth. On my long-term charts, it appears as though the bull market is still intact, although with the S&P 500 up about 2.25% (according to Morningstar) in the last 12 months as of October 8, it is sputtering, not racing, higher.

Earnings growth from 2019 to 2020 looks tepid so, given that earnings are the lifeblood of stock prices, this indicates the continuation of moderate stock market growth. Of course, any number of factors (tariffs, war, terrorism, Federal Reserve policy) could affect the earnings estimates, positively or negatively. Also, we hope to identify stocks for you that will grow at more than market rates, which could boost your returns.

Combined, this reminds me of approaching an intersection and seeing a flashing yellow light. You don’t have to come to a stop, but you should slow down and look carefully before you cross. Given that there is so much “traffic” now in the form of all the factors I have mentioned, now is a great time to re-evaluate your investments and look carefully before proceeding. If you’ve completed a Signature Life Plan with your advisor, let that be your roadmap. If you have not, I encourage you to create the plan. There’s not much sense in taking too much risk, and conversely, you may have to take on risk to achieve your goals.

Our views are subject to change quickly, particularly given the speed at which markets move today.

As always, these opinions are mine, and may or may not be the same as those of Raymond James. This is not a solicitation to invest, although we do invite you to review your portfolio with us to see if any changes should be made.

 

 

Past performance may not be indicative of future results. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of capital. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit nor protect against loss. The foregoing is not a recommendation to buy or sell any individual security or any combination of securities.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index. Index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect investment performance. Individual investor results will vary. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company’s board of directors. Every investor’s situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. Investing in the energy sector involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Scott Mitchell and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional.
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About Scott Mitchell

AAMS ®, Founding Partner SWS, Senior Wealth Advisor RJFS Scott is a cum laude graduate of Wake Forest University School of Business. He received additional training from the College of Financial Planning and earned the accreditation of Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ as well as earning the Accredited Investment Fiduciary® designation.  Scott began his career at Southern National Bank. He then joined his father, Bob Mitchell, at First Union Securities for six years. At Signature, Scott directs investment strategy for the team and oversees the research and management of individual stocks, bonds and mutual funds. Scott lives in Florence with his wife and two children. He is a member and past President of St. Luke Lutheran Church, member and past President of the Florence Rotary Club, and on the board of directors of the Pee Dee Area Big Brothers and Big Sisters. Follow Scott on LinkedIn.

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