Happy summer! Many of us take time off over the next few months, and the stock market often seems to do the same.It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the S&P 500 is about the same value on Labor Day as it was on Memorial Day, although there could be some rallies and pullbacks in between.
The market seems very range-bound
With the S&P locked in between 2600 and 2800, adding to my belief that the summer could be fairly flat for the stock market, generally speaking.
I am bullish on the stock market now, although I am trying to add new money when the S&P 500 pulls back closer to the 2600 level than it is today. Corporate earnings have been fantastic, and that often is what drives stock prices. Also, US railroads have been reporting good activity, indicating that goods are being transported for consumption; consumer confidence is high, and initial jobless claims numbers are on a remarkable tear. However, If oil prices stay high for a while, that could slow down consumption of other goods and services, which could hamper economic growth. If oil and gas prices stay high, people may stop eating at restaurants or going to movies, as they might have less money to spend after filling up their gas tanks.
So, I think that means that you can relax and enjoy your summer.
Try not worry too much about stocks and the economy. As I mentioned, we often get a summer rally, and it is often accompanied by a summer pullback, so don’t be surprised if we get those. If you find yourself with some free time over the summer, and you can’t help but think about your investments, or the stock market, or oil prices, or how much it will cost to send your child to college (gulp!) or to retire, then I encourage you to schedule some time to sit down with us for a review of your situation. We have some amazing tools at our disposal, both in terms of technology and professionals, that might help you get a better grasp on your situation, financial or otherwise.
As always, these recommendations are mine, and may or may not be the same as those of Raymond James. This is not a solicitation to invest, although we do invite you to review your portfolio with us to see if any changes should be made.