2018March-market-update

January reintroduced volatility to the stock market, as concerns of the coronavirus caused investors to rethink their positions. It is becoming more apparent that the disruption caused by the virus (factory shutdowns, travel bans, etc.) may cause a reduction of global growth in 2020. Growth was already projected to be tepid, so this certainly has the potential to bring growth to a crawl. I have not seen any predictions, but I have heard some commentators say that it could slow global growth by as much as 0.8%, which is significant.

According to “The Coronavirus and Volatility,” an article written by a Raymond James research team (available on request), market pullbacks due to epidemics (SARS, MERS, Ebola) are usually short-lived. There are many other factors that go into the “recipe” for market performance, so it’s very difficult to isolate 1 “ingredient” and determine its impact.

For the month of January, the S&P 500 was nearly unchanged, down about 0.16%. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell from about 1.91% to 1.52%, as investors bought bonds as a safe-haven from stock turbulence (when investors buy bonds, it pushes bond prices up, which causes the yield to go down). The NASDAQ Composite Index had a great month, up nearly 2%, as technology stocks continued to lead the way. Gold rose a bit, since it is also seen as a hedge against stock risk.

The pullback, although small (the S&P 500 fell a bit more than 3% from its January 22 high), leads me to believe that now is a good entry point into stocks. I mentioned in my January update that the market was overbought, and that some bad news could lead to a pullback. We’ve gotten that, but low interest rates, plenty of liquidity, strong chart patterns, good jobless claims numbers, and a pullback in investor sentiment are all favorable for stocks. I do believe there are key support levels just below us for the market, so I’ll want to make sure they hold up. Those levels range anywhere from 1 to 6% below where we are today, so more downside is conceivable, but I’ll be using pullbacks to add to stock positions. In particular, we favor technology and industrials.

Either way, now is a great time to ask yourself, “How would I feel if the market fell 10%? How about 20%? Or 30%?” Rather than trying to predict the market’s direction, which you can’t control, it may be more constructive to predict your reaction to it, which you can control. If you can’t stomach a 10% pullback, stocks might not be right for you. After considering this, check with us so we can walk through good case and bad case scenarios for your portfolio to see if its construction is aligned with your risk tolerance.

As always, these opinions are mine, and may or may not be the same as those of Raymond James. This is not a solicitation to invest, although we do invite you to review your portfolio with us to see if any changes should be made.

 

 

 

 

Past performance may not be indicative of future results. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of capital. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit nor protect against loss. The forgoing is not a recommendation to buy or sell any individual security or any combination of securities.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index. Index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect investment performance. Individual investor results will vary. Every investor’s situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. Investing in the energy sector involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. The companies engaged in the communications and technology industries are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated. NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company’s board of directors. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Scott Mitchell and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional.
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About Scott Mitchell

AAMS ®, Founding Partner SWS, Senior Wealth Advisor RJFS Scott is a cum laude graduate of Wake Forest University School of Business. He received additional training from the College of Financial Planning and earned the accreditation of Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ as well as earning the Accredited Investment Fiduciary® designation.  Scott began his career at Southern National Bank. He then joined his father, Bob Mitchell, at First Union Securities for six years. At Signature, Scott directs investment strategy for the team and oversees the research and management of individual stocks, bonds and mutual funds. Scott lives in Florence with his wife and two children. He is a member and past President of St. Luke Lutheran Church, member and past President of the Florence Rotary Club, and on the board of directors of the Pee Dee Area Big Brothers and Big Sisters. Follow Scott on LinkedIn.